Ranking de probabilidad de campeonato
Estimación Monte Carlo basada en resultados, forma reciente y las variables de ranking, plantel, salud y logística de variables_predictivas.json.
| Pos | Equipo | Probabilidad | Ranking FIFA | PJ previos | Pts previos | GF previos | GC previos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentina | 18.4% | 1 | 8 | 21 | 21 | 2 |
| 2 | Inglaterra | 16.2% | 4 | 8 | 19 | 17 | 2 |
| 3 | Bélgica | 14.4% | 9 | 8 | 18 | 25 | 6 |
| 4 | Francia | 11.6% | 3 | 8 | 19 | 21 | 8 |
| 5 | Marruecos | 10.6% | 7 | 8 | 18 | 18 | 3 |
| 6 | España | 9.8% | 2 | 8 | 18 | 19 | 4 |
| 7 | Noruega | 9.8% | 31 | 8 | 15 | 19 | 7 |
| 8 | Suiza | 5.0% | 19 | 8 | 13 | 15 | 8 |
| 9 | Colombia | 4.2% | 13 | 8 | 16 | 16 | 7 |
| 10 | Alemania | 0.0% | 10 | 8 | 24 | 25 | 5 |
| 11 | Arabia Saudí | 0.0% | 61 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 10 |
| 12 | Argelia | 0.0% | 28 | 8 | 19 | 16 | 3 |
| 13 | Australia | 0.0% | 27 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 9 |
| 14 | Austria | 0.0% | 24 | 8 | 19 | 22 | 4 |
| 15 | Bosnia y Herzegovina | 0.0% | 64 | 8 | 12 | 13 | 8 |
| 16 | Brasil | 0.0% | N/D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Cabo Verde | 0.0% | 67 | 8 | 13 | 16 | 9 |
| 18 | Canadá | 0.0% | 30 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 4 |
| 19 | Catar | 0.0% | 56 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 9 |
| 20 | Chequia | 0.0% | 40 | 8 | 15 | 17 | 8 |
| 21 | Costa de Marfil | 0.0% | 33 | 8 | 19 | 18 | 7 |
| 22 | Croacia | 0.0% | 11 | 8 | 16 | 14 | 10 |
| 23 | Curazao | 0.0% | 82 | 8 | 11 | 16 | 12 |
| 24 | Ecuador | 0.0% | 23 | 8 | 14 | 11 | 5 |
| 25 | Egipto | 0.0% | 29 | 8 | 14 | 12 | 6 |
| 26 | Escocia | 0.0% | 42 | 8 | 15 | 19 | 10 |
| 27 | Estados Unidos | 0.0% | 17 | 8 | 13 | 16 | 15 |
| 28 | Ghana | 0.0% | 73 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 13 |
| 29 | Haití | 0.0% | 83 | 8 | 13 | 12 | 7 |
| 30 | Irak | 0.0% | 57 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 8 |
| 31 | Irán | 0.0% | 20 | 8 | 14 | 14 | 5 |
| 32 | Japón | 0.0% | 18 | 8 | 19 | 13 | 6 |
| 33 | Jordania | 0.0% | 63 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
| 34 | México | 0.0% | 14 | 8 | 20 | 15 | 2 |
| 35 | Nueva Zelanda | 0.0% | 85 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 14 |
| 36 | Panamá | 0.0% | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 13 |
| 37 | Paraguay | 0.0% | 41 | 8 | 13 | 12 | 9 |
| 38 | Países Bajos | 0.0% | 8 | 8 | 17 | 18 | 5 |
| 39 | Portugal | 0.0% | 5 | 8 | 17 | 18 | 7 |
| 40 | RD del Congo | 0.0% | 46 | 8 | 14 | 9 | 4 |
| 41 | República de Corea | 0.0% | 25 | 8 | 15 | 11 | 10 |
| 42 | Senegal | 0.0% | 15 | 8 | 16 | 12 | 8 |
| 43 | Sudáfrica | 0.0% | 60 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 |
| 44 | Suecia | 0.0% | 38 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 16 |
| 45 | Turquía | 0.0% | 22 | 8 | 22 | 22 | 5 |
| 46 | Túnez | 0.0% | 45 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 12 |
| 47 | Uruguay | 0.0% | 16 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 7 |
| 48 | Uzbekistán | 0.0% | 50 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 7 |